[A letter to Legate Vellyn Lhyrian]

[WriterX]

Legate Lhyrian,

 While the incident yesterday may have come as a surprise to the Crown Princess, it should not had come as a surprise to any of us.

 Looking through the scope of a Modini, Kha'esh has been on a rampage to garner more power and influence from the early days of the war. Now that they have gained it, it may be difficult to pry it from their hands.

 It is clear that Arslan is the main prize, while the Quarry, to my own eyes, is such a minor topic I do not know why it was even presented before such an Assembly. Most of the controversy surrounding it is so trivial I beg myself the question whether it's not used as a distraction by one of the players present.

 And yet, while we are at "war" over Arslan, we near the end of the conflict of Iakmes. Everybody knows that. There will be a lot of prizes to fight for, when the dust settles, and therein lies the problem.

 Baz'eel and Kha'esh both will claim rights to many a different things. To territory, to treasures, to all manner of things. We are also in no position to play a significant enough role to gain almost anything for ourselves.

 The balance of power is crushingly in our disfavor, which may seem odd considering our investment in this War, but from a purely political and diplomatic standpoint, we are a warhound unleashed by Baz'eel. And while the leash may be loosened to allow us to conduct some limited diplomacy of our own, or to take decisive action in some matters, we are still by our master's side, for if we stray, we are given the rod.

 Holding that in mind we ought consider a few likely scenarios and answer a few basic questions.

 Firstly, a balancing act, of investment versus victory. Every side in the Union wishes the War to be over, and I doubt any side will want to pull away, as that would be a dark mark on their standing and reputation, both today and in historical records. As such I doubt that Khe'sh will pull out of the war, as that would mark them as Pariahs, abandoning their allies at their time of greatest need, against a world ending cataclysm.

 Which of course brings us to the matter of balance. Kha'esh may not be interested in the War being Lost, but at the end of it they do not wish to be in a position of disadvantage. The moment Iakmes falls to the ground may be the most critical. If our own forces are exhausted, specifically those of the Well, and Kha'esh seeks blood or immediate demands in spoils, I do not know whether the Legion forces present will be enough to safeguard us, and all of the assets present in the War Camp.

 If Kha'esh turns on us, as the War ends, both our forces in the Scald, and our own City, may be exposed to an attack. Baz'eel may no doubt observe any such movements, but I would not guarantee that they will be quick enough to react, if they are willing to hand over secret missives to people like Oswick.

In short, Kha'esh may excuse its forces from any final assault, claiming to be in reserve, letting its allies be broken and withered. Or, if they do send any forces, it will be those they find to be expendable most. If we cannot learn of their plans and intentions, or hear even any rumors from the mercenary forces in the Scald, there are too many unknowns.

On the other side, Kha'esh may decide to commit fully those forces in the Scald, if only to gain legitimacy over more spoils, just as they did at Arslan. The question being whether Bet Nappahi is at all a priority for them, or whether they just wish to focus on what they can easily gain and control, Arslan. 

Which brings me to my second matter.

If we are afraid of what the current situation may lead to, once the War is over, it may be good to have a sit-down with those of any modicum of power and responsibility to prepare a suitable exit strategy, without any surprises. We assume that Kha'esh wants to gain something after the War, as does Baz'eel. We may have to come to terms that there will be nothing left for us, but if we can perhaps make the two come together at least we will avoid a tragedy.

The Theater we witnessed yesterday was of course troubling, which is why now is the time to try and see what cards each side has, and what they may intend to do.

Baz'eel wants Arslan. Only because they claim that we are to "rule over it" does not mean much. Much like a father giving his favorite toy to his son, they may play with it, but the moment the father disapproves he will take it away. And frankly, unless somebody wants to be exiled for high treason, we would just nod and hand it over.

Kha'esh wants Arslan. They claim to have conquered it, even though more than one side was invested in fighting for it.

Do we want Arslan? We can barely govern ourselves. And while there are some apparent riches in the city itself, gems if I am not mistaken, I doubt we will get to keep them.

Granted there may be something in Arslan that we are not aware of that skews the whole vision. People of the Desert are so obsessed with Collosi artifacts and mysticism, I would not be surprised if Arslan was home to something everybody else finds important, and to me it's just a pile of rocks.

Thirdly, we should ask ourselves what we want out of this war. Not what Baz'eel wants, not what Kha'esh wants, but what we want. We are heroically sacrificing our people and resources, but to what end?

Granted, as I mentioned before, we were warhounds, unleashed by Baz'eel, expected to return back at their singular call. But that doesn't mean we should return empty handed.

 And I will not accept the rhetoric of "We did this for the desert and its people". Iakmes is a threat, yes. That doesn't mean we should pretend to be Oathtakers and allow Baz'eel and Kha'esh to take everything, while we receive only some manner of scraps, if anything at all.

 It really does not help that our city is split apart between numerous factions. Even if we wanted to make such a decision somebody else would object. I would say that this decision lies in the hands of the two Legates that the people elected.

 The outcome of this war may very well depend, not via performances on the grand public stage, but what you and Alexandria might achieve through whispers.

 I will try to see the Warmaster's thoughts as well, as I imagine she too is aware of the situation we find ourselves in.

 Let us make the best of our current situation.

Catalina Calza
Intern-Secretary of the Gold League