I have had this happen a few times. I'm hit by a web from a spider, which reduces my dex to 3 for a while therefore lowering my AC. Now, I hit expertise while i'm there to protect myself but when the web wares off and my dex goes up, the AC never recovers, my base AC is now 5 lower than it should be. My AC before entering combat was 20, after leaving it is 15. I have to log off and log back on to restore it to normal.
I'm guessing others have had this happen as i've had it with more than one PC.